How will Facebook die?

Note: This article was first written in July 2018, and has since been updated…because more bad things have happened at Facebook in just the last three months

Photo by Mathew MacQuarrie on Unsplash

People migrate to a new social network (ODDS 10000:1)

Remember Ello? How about Peach? Each of these were touted as “the Facebook slayer”.

Amazon buys Facebook (900:1)

I mean really…why not? We’ve seen unimaginable mergers in the past, specifically in the media business, so what’s to stop this from happening in the next few years?Imagine a Facebook-Amazon integration. Imagine Amazon with all that data.

The stock withers and dies (500:1)

I am not a financial analyst. But facebook’s stock growth (it opened at $42 and peaked at $209) has been fuelled by the perfect blend of ad revenue growth and user growth. But now the latter has stagnated, placing the former in doubt.

The government shuts it down (100:1)

Lawmakers were completely clueless when they interviewed Zuckerberg this past summer. It felt like a bad SNL sketch where old baby boomers try to understand what their millennial son does for work.

So, what will really happen?

Honestly — I don’t know. The next scandal could be so massive that it forces Zuckerberg to resign. Or even worse, forces him to break up Facebook’s wealth of assets, and sell off something like Instagram. I would bet my chips on the last option — that government regulation does catch up and Facebook becomes massively regulated.

Vancouver, BC

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